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This projection by the CDC was no more robust than that of Kumanyika and colleagues, but it differed in one critical way: It was limited to the population already demonstrating its vulnerability. Predicting that more of those on Titanic's lower decks, where some were already drowning, would eventually drown would have been a safe, if grim, bet. Extending such projections to the less clearly vulnerable is where they tend to break down.
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